· ReadyStack
Worked example
Real numbers from this tool, line by line.
A Show HN founder with 45 points at 3 hours and 60 comments loses 45.58% of the post's rank score to the flamewar factor, and the post sits at 85.50% of the story at #30 — at most 10 upvotes short of page one.
That is the worked example in the Hacker News Ranking Calculator. Here are the numbers it produced, against a #30 story with 120 points at 8 hours:
- Flamewar factor: 0.5442
- Rank score lost to the penalty: 45.58%
- Your rank score: 0.62
- Rank score of the #30 story: 0.7252
- Your score as a share of the #30 line: 85.50%
- Upvotes needed to pass #30 now: at most 10
- Score kept after one more hour with no new votes: 72.02%
Where the cut comes from
The published Arc news.arc source ranks a story by (points − 1) to the power 0.8, divided by (age in hours + 2) to the power 1.8. Then it multiplies by a penalty. A text post with no URL, such as Ask HN, gets 0.4. A link post whose thread holds more than 20 items (the story plus its comments) gets min(1, (points ÷ items)²). With 45 points and 61 items, that factor is 0.5442.
So the comments you are proud of can be the reason you drop. The calculator shows the ceiling too: with 45 points, the cut starts after 44 comments. Below 20 comments it never applies.
Three launches, three different answers
- The busy Show HN above: 85.50% of the line, at most 10 upvotes short. The number is an upper bound, because every new upvote also eases the flamewar factor.
- An Ask HN text post with 80 points at 2 hours and 15 comments. The 0.4 factor removes 60.00% of its score, yet it still sits at 149.97% of the line. It is safe for now.
- A quiet link post with 30 points at 6 hours and 10 comments. No penalty at all, but age has done its work: 48.30% of the line, at most 43 upvotes short.
Same formula, three very different mornings. A rank tracker can tell you afterwards which one you had. The calculator tells you while you can still act.
Time is the other penalty
The age divisor grows every hour. With no new votes, a 3-hour-old post keeps 72.02% of its score one hour later. That is why the first hours decide a launch, and why "it will climb later" rarely holds.
What you type, what you get
You type six things: your points, your post's age in hours, your comment count, the post type, and the points and age of the story at #30 right now. The page answers with 11 checks. Nothing is uploaded and there is no account.
The paid file
The free page answers one post at one moment. The full version is a .xlsx with a 24h Launch Plan sheet. You put in the upvotes and comments per hour you expect, and 25 hourly rows (hour 0 to 24) show your score against the #30 line. You plan the posting hour before you post, then reuse the sheet for every launch. Full version — $21 once, not a subscription.
What it cannot promise
The live Hacker News adds moderation and undisclosed adjustments on top of the published code. Treat the result as the published baseline. If your post falls much faster than the sheet says, something outside the formula is acting on it.
Try it with your own post
Open the free calculator, type the three numbers from your post, and read the upvotes you are short.
15 seconds — what it actually does
Questions people ask
What does this Hacker News ranking calculator do?
It runs the ranking formula published in the Arc news.arc source: (points - 1) to the power 0.8, divided by (age in hours + 2) to the power 1.8, times a penalty factor. It scores your post and the story at #30, then shows the upvotes you still need to pass that line right now.
Who is this front-page calculator for?
Founders, indie hackers and developer-relations leads who post a Show HN or Ask HN launch. If you are watching the new page and wondering whether 40 points at hour three is enough to stay among the 30 front-page stories, this gives you the number of upvotes you are short.
Why not just use a free HN rank tracker?
Free rank trackers record where a post was after it happened. They do not take your own points, age and comment count and work out what you still need. This calculator applies the published formula to your numbers, including the text-post factor of 0.4 and the flamewar cut.
What is free and what is in the paid file?
The web calculator is free and complete: it scores one post at one moment and shows all 11 checks. The paid .xlsx adds a 24-hour Launch Plan sheet that projects your score against the #30 line for every hour from your expected votes and comments per hour, so you can plan before posting.
How does the price compare with doing this by hand?
BLS 2025 data puts the median marketing manager at $80.19 per hour. Watching the front page and guessing for one launch-day hour costs more than the $21 file, which you pay once and reuse for every launch. The live ranking also has undisclosed adjustments, so treat the result as the published baseline.
Ask about this tool
One question, answered by the person who built it. Your email only if you want the answer sent.